Military adventure is often the best option for a despotic regime undergoing fiasco.

“The people crave for the destruction of Israel”. This was the slogan of thousands of Muslims who joined a massive demonstration in Al-Azhar Mosque – the spiritual bastion of the "Muslim Brotherhood" in Egypt. It was the first mass anti-Israel demonstration organized by the "Muslim Brotherhood", the party of Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi. However remarkable this event was, it went nearly unnoticed in the mass media.

Although the official reasons given for organizing the event were the detention of Jerusalem Mufti in Israel and the IDF airstrike in Syria, any other minor event could have been a valid motive.

Leaders of "Muslim Brotherhood" never concealed their hatred towards Israel: its Supreme Guide Muhammad Badi called for jihad against the "Zionists"; Safwat Hegazi, who launched Mohamed Mori’s 2012 presidential campaign, called for restoring the "Caliphate" with Jerusalem as its capital, and president Morsi himself called the Jews "descendants of apes and pigs".

Yet until now, they have been very careful. They didn't rush to incite the rage of crowds even during the last Israeli operations in Gaza in November 2012. The bombing of the secret base of the president Assad, whom Morsi has criticized mercilessly, is hardly worth such an outburst of fury. What is the cause then?

The current situation in Egypt is precarious if not catastrophic. According to February report of the Central Bank of Egypt, the country's foreign exchange reserve amounted to US$ 13.6 billion, marking the lowest point since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak when it stood at US$ 36 billion. Anarchy across Egypt and the "jihadist" attacks in the Sinai led to a sharp decline in tourism, with it tourism revenues. Further disruptions of gas supplies to Israel and Jordan also cut another sources of foreign exchange earnings. With nearly half the population living under poverty threshold at $ 2 a day per person, Egyptians suffer regular shortages of water and electricity. The international credit rating of Egypt fell deep into “junk” status. As a result, foreign investors don’t want to invest in the economy. It is easier to manipulate the ignorant masses by religious demagoguery which helped the "Muslim Brothers" rise to power, but religious demagoguery doesn’t help build a sustainable economy.

Egypt has been shaken by mass protests. Judges refuse to obey the fundamentalists, headed by President Morsi. The motorcade of Egyptian Prime Minister Hisham Qandil was attacked in the suburbs of Cairo, Giza. The army is called to regain the power forcefully. Egyptian Defense Minister, General Abdul Fatah Al-Sisi has rejected such option, but even the mere discussion of such scenario is a bad sign for the "Muslim Brotherhood".

Mоrsi is begging for handouts from the USA to Russia, to Qatar, to Germany, but none of these countries is capable of feeding 90-million hungry mouths. IMF is ready to provide credit of 4.8 billion dollars, but with conditional austerity measures: increasing taxes and reducing subsidies on bread. Such austerity measures would lead to mass protests and the "Muslim Brotherhood" is not suicidal.

In this situation, the regime has two options: First, the traditional one: unleash the resentments of the masses on the streets toward the "Zionists", thus to ease the pressure on the own government – a common practice used constantly and ubiquitously in the Arab world (even the ousted Mubarak used this tactic).

The second is the path of a brinkmanship of war. Conventional logic suggests that "Muslim Brothers" will not dare engaging in a direct war with Israel. First of all, Egypt has a very slight chance of winning in today's high-tech war against Israel. Secondly, the annulment of the peace agreement could cause termination of supply of weapons from United States. And finally, war would lead to the closure of the Suez Canal (toll collection for goods carried through the canal is the main source of Egyptian income) and a complete end of tourism. Qualified Industrial Zone (QIZ), which allows Egypt in cooperation with Israel duty-free export of cotton to the US, would be inevitably closed down.

This conventional wisdom and logic is a natural one for a man of the West. But to a despotic regime that becomes hostage of circumstances, such wisdom may not apply. Instead of exclusion of war, the regime may see it as the ultimate solution to all its problems.

While Egypt would most likely lose a direct confrontation with Israel, war also mobilizes and unites the nation around its leader, especially when Israel is so intensely hated at all levels of the society. It will help neutralize the rebellious officers and opposition, impose a state of emergency and harsh economic constraints. The regime will declare that "the country is in grave danger” and the "belt-tightening" is a necessary measure provoked by "the machinations of the Zionists”. Opponents at home will not dare turn themselves into “enemies of the Motherland” and fizzle out. Egypt will lose its revenues, but in the present situation of total economic collapse, it would matter very little. At the same time, Egyptians and the entire Arab world will see the "Muslim Brothers" as invincible fighters against the "Zionists".

Ultimately, any defeat today is unlikely to be as devastating as the one Nasser suffered in the Six Day War (why? see below), in spite of which he had remained a national, indeed the Arab world, hero. In the 1973 war, the Egyptian army was surrounded and a door to Cairo was wide open for the Israeli army before the agreement to end the war was struck. Still the Egyptians as well as the Arab world considered the war as a glorious victory.

Glory through martyrdom is gained at the cost of suffering and impoverishment of the people, but who said that people didn’t want it? After the World War II, many Russians lived in humiliating poverty. Yet, they defended the greatness of the Soviet Empire with its invasion of Czechoslovakia and Hungary, the ongoing and costly aid to Egypt and Syria, operations in Yemen, Angola and Mozambique, and the occupation of Afghanistan. "National pride", for many people, is more important than materialistic prosperity.

Regarding why Egypt is unlikely to suffer a crushing defeat, under the current international climate, Egypt will not be allowed to suffer such a defeat. Morsi can quite reasonably expect that the U.S., Russia, the EU and the UN would stop Israel from demolishing the Egyptian army. International intervention will force the two sides to a true—i.e. it will be declared a tie, and a tie in war against the hate “Zionists” in the Arab world will be considered as an unambiguous and satisfying victory, as it was during the Second Lebanon campaign.

Egypt may even succeed in creating war hysteria among the masses without declaring a war against Israel, thus saving itself from officially breaking the Camp David Accords. They can create such a situation with a mere placement of troops in the Sinai under some pretext, or with military assistance to Hamas – the Palestinian branch of the "Muslim Brotherhood".

Such a provocation will not be enough to trigger Israel into starting a war. And this Israeli indecisiveness would mean an undeniable victory for Egypt, after which no one will dare to question the prestige of the "Muslim Brotherhood". Muslim Brothers would be elevated to unquestionable heroes and saviors of Egypt.

Even if Israel breaks the Camp David Accords by declaring war against Egypt, it is unlikely to prompt the Obama Administration into revising its relations with Egypt. Obama, Kerry and Hagel, by definition, are incapable of doing anything except calling for peace resolutions and closing backroom deals. Obama failed to take any substantive action to save the American ambassador to Libya who was lynched by "jihadists", neither did he take any against Libya subsequently. So, he is unlikely to mess up his relations with the great power of the Arab world due to “some” violation of Camp David agreements.

In 1937, Germany was on the verge of economic bankruptcy, the Nazis were losing their popularity, and Wehrmacht officers were anticipating the moment when they could overthrow the mad psychopath. They were waiting for the fortitude of the West, whereas the West hid behind the Maginot Line with tail between its legs. After the occupation of the demilitarized zone of the River Rhine and of Czechoslovakia, no one dared to question the strategic genius of the Fuhrer.

Military adventurism, in many cases, is a winning card in the hands of totalitarian regimes—be it the Nazis, the Communists or Islamists. We may recall Churchill words, "You were given the choice between war and dishonor – you chose dishonor and you will have war," which will become a reality for Israel. As for the Muslim Brothers, it will be the paraphrased words, “Choosing between glory and power, they choose the glory and get power."

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